5/20/2023 0 Comments The black swan nassim taleb![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Anyone who causes harm by forecasting should be treated as either a fool or a liar."."Corporate and government projections have an additional easy-to-spot flaw: they do not attach a possible error rate to their scenarios.". ![]() The unexpected almost always pushes in a single direction: higher costs and a longer time to completion." Consider the track records of builders, paper writers, and contractors. "The unexpected has a one-sided effect with projects.We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness." "We humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events."What matters is not how often you are right, but how large your cumulative errors are."."Simply, things that move, and therefore require knowledge, do not usually have experts, while things that don’t move seem to have some experts."."My biggest problem with the educational system lies precisely in that it forces students to squeeze explanations out of subject matters and shames them for withholding judgment, for uttering the "I don’t know.””. ![]()
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